Pakistan’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in May 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.
On a month-on-month basis, however, consumer prices fell by 0.2%, indicating a continued but slower pace of disinflation compared to the 0.8% monthly decline observed in April.
The moderation suggests that while downward price adjustments persist, the disinflationary trend is losing some momentum.
For the July–May period of fiscal year 2024–25, average inflation stood at 4.61%, a sharp decline from 24.52% over the same period in the previous fiscal year.
This substantial decrease underscores the scale of the disinflation experienced over the past 11 months.
The uptick in May’s annual inflation rate is largely attributed to the diminishing base effect, as May 2023 saw an extraordinary spike of 38% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The statistical comparison against this high base had previously kept year-on-year figures artificially low.
May’s inflation figure also exceeded prior estimates. The Ministry of Finance had projected the rate to remain between 1.5% and 2%, while private-sector analysts from JS Global and Insight Securities had anticipated 2.7% and 3.4%, respectively.
