A developing cyclone is forecast to slam Pakistan early next week, bringing a dose of dangerous and destructive weather to a region struggling with surging coronavirus cases and deaths.
The storm could reach the strength of a major hurricane, with winds well over 100 mph, in addition to a serious storm surge, or rise in ocean water above normally dry land, and pockets of flooding rainfall inland.
Pakistan has a 1,046-kilometre (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the extreme south western part. Though cyclones are rare in the Arabian sea, cyclones that form in this sea mostly move towards Indian state of Gujarat. Let’s take an in-depth review of deadliest tropical cyclones in Pakistan.
Cyclones in Pakistan
Each year before the onset of monsoon that is 15 April to 15 July and also after its withdrawal that is 15 September to 15 December, there is always a distinct possibility of the cyclonic storm to develop in the north Arabian Sea.
There is a 98 percent chance of cyclones to turn towards the Indian state of Gujarat, one percent chance of moving towards the Gulf and one per cent chance of moving towards the Pakistani coast.
Pakistan hasn’t been hit by a tropical cyclone since 2010, when the remnants of two systems brought heavy rain and wind to the country. In 2007, more than 200 people were killed in Karachi by tropical storm conditions stemming from Cyclone Yemyin. On May 20, 1999, a Category 3-equivalent storm killed 6,400 people in the country.
Cyclone Tauktae
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued an alert about the Cyclone Tauktae, saying that it will cause rainfall and gusty winds in parts of Sindh including Karachi from May 17 to May 20.
According to a statement issued in this regard, the Depression over Southeast Arabian has intensified into a Cyclonic Storm “TAUKTAE” and lay centered at a distance of about 1,460km south-southeast of Karachi.
The weather department said that the maximum speed of the winds sustained around the cyclone have been recorded at 70-90km/hr, adding that they are expected to reach 100kh/hr.
“The system is likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) during next 12-18 hours,” read the alert, adding that it can move in the north-northwest direction and reach the Indian city of Gujarat by the morning of May 18.
The Met office further stated that under the influence of this system, widespread raindust/thunderstorm with few heavy to very heavy falls and gusty winds of 70-90 Kmph are likely to occur in Thatta, Badin, Thar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot & Sanghar districts from 17 May to 20 May 2021.
Past Experience of Karachi
In July 2020, the people of Karachi went through another hellish rain-related experience. There were electrocution-related deaths, roads were submerged and therefore impassable, while there was no electricity for hours in many city areas.
Perhaps in some other country there would be outrage over such a sad state of affairs in a nation’s commercial capital. Ironically, Karachi has been neglected by the PPP, which has made loud noises about the rights of Karachi, but has done little to translate rhetoric into deliverable policy. Even the PTI, which won the majority of the city’s National Assembly seats, has done nothing for the metropolis.
Intra-institutional reforms must be initiated in KMC; cantonment boards; DMCs; SITE; port authorities; KWSB; Karachi, Malir and Lyari development authorities; Sindh Katchi Abadis Authority; and SBCA and DHA. These bodies must be advised to undertake a need analysis for capacity building and upgradation against their responsibilities, as well as to prepare and submit comprehensive annual reports to the steering committee.
