After the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) today’s decision regarding 25 dissident PTI lawmakers, the number game’s situation in the Punjab Assembly took an interesting turn. Everyone is asking who will be the next CM Punjab or what will be the future of current Punjab Assembly?
Let us try to find an answer to the question.
Hamza Shehbaz won CM slot against PTI’s candidate Parvez Elahi with 197 votes, but to bag the slot, he had to secure the vote of 25 members of the provincial assembly (MPAs), belonging to the PTI, who violated the party line.
If the votes of these 25 PTI MPAs are discounted, in re-election for the chief minister of Punjab, does Hamza still emerge victorious?
At present, PTI and Elahi’s PML-Q have 193 MPAs in the Punjab assembly. Minus from this number the 25 rebels and Elahi is left with 168 votes.
On the other side is Hamza Shehbaz. His party, the PML-N, with the help of the PPP has a total of 173 MPAs. But minus from this the four dissident PML-N MPAs who are unlikely to vote for Hamza
That leaves the current chief minister with 169 votes.
In the 371-member Punjab assembly, there are also four independent MPAs, namely: Chaudhry Nisar, Ahmad Ali Aulakh, Qasim Langah, Bilal Warraich. And then there is chief of his own party, Muavia Azam Tariq.So far Hamza Shehbaz seems to be winning with one vote.
It is likely that these five men will be one of the deciding factors in the race for chief ministership. But it gets a little more complicated than this.
Of the 25 rebel PTI MPAs who voted for Hamza Shehbaz, five were on reserved seats. Three MPAs were on seats reserved for women and two on seats for minorities.
if these five seats are quickly refilled. This means that these five votes will go to Elahi, putting him in the lead on election day, but some experts are of the view that these seats cannot be refilled before elections on 20 vacant seats.
There is one more point also to consider. As per the rules of the Punjab Assembly, the chief minister is elected with a simple majority, therefore 186 votes out of the 371-seat assembly are needed to become CM, but if no candidate secures the votes of a majority of the total membership for the assembly in the first round then the second round of voting is held.
In this round, the candidate who secures the most votes, from amongst the members present that day, will win.
