The joint opposition has finally tabled a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan in the National Assembly. The next session has been convened on March 31. Voting may not take place on that day and speeches will be made first. In fact, it is an indication that the government does not have enough numbers and is trying to manage things as much as possible.
According to experts, if the motion is tabled on March 27, then the voting must take place within seven days (April 3). The government may hold the vote on April 2 or 3. Until then, it is possible that the decision of the Supreme Court will also come. Court decisions are usually pronounced on Friday, which is April 1.
There are three possible scenarios for a no-confidence motion. The first scenario: If a no-trust resolution against the premier is passed by the support of 172 or more members of the lower house, the prime minister ceases to hold office. When the prime minister is removed through a vote of no-confidence, his cabinet is also dissolved. After the premier is removed, the National Assembly must immediately vote to elect a new leader.
Asif Zardari has openly said that in such a case Shehbaz Sharif will be the Prime Minister, which means he has agreed to give the seat to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz. There are various rumors circulating about Shehbaz Sharif’s forthcoming cabinet. There is a strong possibility that the cabinet may have been formed in a meeting of three opposition leaders.
Rana Sanaullah’s name is being considered for the Interior Ministry. According to reports, Zardari called Rana Sanaullah as Interior Minister in a meeting. There is also news of Bilawal Bhutto becoming Foreign Minister. But Zardari will decide whether Bilawal should take up the post now or not.
The cabinet will be represented by PPP, PML-N, JUI and other smaller groups. The next decision will be to bring a no-confidence motion against the Speaker and Deputy National Assembly. After that, the president may be threatened with impeachment and asked to resign. It is worth mentioning here that these are all assumptions and this scenario will be formed only when the no-confidence motion is passed.
An important question in this regard is that if the MQM does not join Opposition, then they will have to rely on a few dissident members of the PTI Assembly. Constitutionally, in the next few days, these dissident members will be disqualified and by-elections will be held in their constituencies, which will take up to two months. How will the opposition fill the vacuum created by this situation?
For a no-confidence motion – against Prime Minister, Speaker or Deputy Speaker – to be successful, the support of a simple majority, 172 of the total 342 members, in the lower house of parliament is required. How will all this be made possible?
After the Center, the next battle will be in Punjab, where the opposition will try to elect its own Chief Minister. For this, the opposition have to rely on dissident PTI members in all circumstances because Chaudhry Pervez Elahi is supporting the government. Our political tradition, however, is that if the PTI loses at the Center, there will be a dramatic change in Punjab as well. However, this is still a hypothetical scenario.
The second scenario: Another possible scenario could be that the no-confidence motion fails. The opposition could not bring 172 members in the assembly on the day of voting. This will only happen if the MQM continues to be an ally and the dissident PTI members return, for which Chaudhry Pervez Elahi is active.
In such a case, the government will try to disqualify some members of Opposition parties – PPP, PML-N and others. There is also a possibility that the “conscience” of some dissident members – who promised to support the opposition – will be awakened again and they will not be able to reach the assembly on time.
If the no-confidence motion fails with one vote, it will still be a failure and a defeat. Close competition doesn’t make sense in that case. In this regard, the morale of the government will be high. In the next phase, the government will try to restore what was lost. Talks can be held with the father again, efforts will be made to bring back the remaining dissident members, including Shahzain Bugti.
However, it should be clear that the government majority will further decrease. The government already had a majority of barely ten members, now maybe two or three will be left. This will hamper legislation and, even just two months after the budget is tabled, will be a nightmare.
Remember that constitutionally, if a government fails to pass a budget, it will end immediately. In that case, elections are held in the next few months. If this scenario develops, Imran Khan would like to go for elections by announcing a few other extraordinary public welfare benefits ranging from a 25 per cent increase in the salaries of government employees in the budget.
The third scenario: This third scenario also stems from the failure of the no-confidence motion. The only difference is that the government will work with more confidence and power. This is possible when the civil government and the Establishment are on the same page again. That is quite possible. Imran Khan must have realized his rebellion and the mistake of somewhat rebellious attitude adopted a few months back.
Imran Khan will do a better job now. It is also possible to make a “sensible” decision regarding the extension or appointment of an important post. In such a case, it is possible that a forward bloc within the opposition parties in the Center and Punjab be formed. Ten to fifteen members of the Assembly should be there to support the government on important occasions or to deter opposition parties from any new no-confidence motion.
It must be noted that the Constitution prohibits the members of the Assembly from voting on the directive of the parliamentary leader on only three issues. In addition, under normal circumstances, members of the Assembly can avoid disqualification by voting against their party.
In his latest interviews, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi is talking about the government for the next two years. This includes a period of four to six months after the end of the Assembly term in July next year. This is possible only when the government has the full support of the Establishment and the opposition is so frustrated that they sit back and give up instead of embarking on a new adventure.
This will be the third scenario, in which case whenever the next election is held, the PTI and PML-Q will work together to fight in Punjab and defeat the PML-N.
