Iran’s airstrikes on Tuesday night within Pakistani territory in Balochistan’s southwestern province pose a significant risk of dragging Islamabad into a wider regional conflict, warned analysts.
The attacks, ostensibly targeting the militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), resulted in the tragic death of at least two children and the injury of three others, as reported by the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Expressing strong condemnation for the incident near the border city of Panjgur, Pakistan declared it a violation of sovereignty, leading to the recall of Pakistan’s envoy in Tehran. The ministry emphasized the act’s illegality and asserted Pakistan’s right to respond, placing responsibility squarely on Iran.
As a consequence, Pakistan initiated diplomatic blowback by recalling its ambassador in Tehran and denying re-entry to Iran’s ambassador in Islamabad. The Foreign Ministry labeled Iran’s actions as a violation of international law, threatening repercussions and asserting Pakistan’s right to respond.
Analysts, such as Kamran Bokhari from the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, speculated on potential responses. While diplomatic channels were activated, the possibility of a military response was not ruled out. Bokhari highlighted the risk of further conflict for Pakistan, potentially involving a third border.
Ihsanullah Tipu, a security analyst, indicated that Pakistan might pursue both diplomatic and military responses. He suggested seeking a public apology through diplomatic channels but warned that failure could lead to considering a military response to the Iranian attack.
Also read: Iran says Balochi militant group bases attacked in Pakistan: state media
Tipu expressed surprise at Iran’s escalation and foresaw lasting implications on bilateral relations, particularly in politics and security. The Iranian actions, he argued, could provide justification for Pakistan to target sanctuaries of anti-Pakistan militant outfits based in Iran or elsewhere.
Bokhari added that the Iranian air attacks might push Pakistan towards seeking greater alignment with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. He framed the attack as part of a broader Iranian confrontation with the United States, with Tehran viewing Pakistan as a pawn in this high-stakes geopolitical maneuvering.
