With just less than two weeks left until the U.S. presidential election, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is heating up, with the latest polls showing them in a near tie. Trump holds a slight advantage in key swing states. To secure the presidency, a candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes, distributed across states based on population.
What do the latest polls show?
- In a Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% among registered voters, a shift from August when Harris led 47% to 45%. The margin of error is 2.5%, and respondents could choose third-party candidates.
- A HarrisX/Forbes survey shows Trump ahead nationally by two points, 51% to 49% among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate (with a 2.5% margin of error). Without leaners, Trump leads 49% to 48%. The poll also shows Trump tied at 47% when respondents were allowed to pick third-party candidates.
- Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters (taken October 17-21) shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among voters planning to vote, while 4% chose “other” and 5% remained undecided.
- The Economist/YouGov poll released the same day shows Harris ahead by three points, 49% to 46%, among likely voters, with a margin of error of 3%. This is a slight dip from the group’s previous poll earlier in October.
What are the polls saying about the swing states?
The seven key swing states—Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6)—account for 93 electoral votes. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of recent surveys, Trump holds a narrow lead in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, while the remaining four states are much closer, with less than half a percentage point separating Trump and Harris. Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, while Harris edges him out in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
What do the betting odds say?
Current betting odds show Trump with a 57% chance of victory, the highest margin in his favor since July 29. Betting platforms like Betfair and Smarkets reflect similar trends, giving Trump a 58% chance, while Kalshi puts it at 57%.
