Trump or Harris: How long will it take for the air to clear after polling closes?

As Americans are exercising their right to vote today to choose their next president, the nation is bracing for what could be a drawn-out wait for clarity on the results.

The tight race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, along with the complex logistics of this year’s election, means it may take longer than usual to determine the winner.

In past presidential elections, some winners were declared just hours after the polls closed. However, in 2024, the expectation is that it could take days before the air fully clears. The bitterly contested nature of the race between Harris, the current vice president, and Trump, the former president, has made many states battlegrounds, where results may be too close to call on election night.

In some cases, narrow margins could trigger automatic recounts. For instance, in Pennsylvania—a key swing state—if the gap between the winner and loser is less than half a percentage point, a state-wide recount will be required. A similar situation occurred in 2020 when Biden’s win in Pennsylvania came by just over 1%, and it took several days for the final tally to emerge.

Beyond tight margins, other factors could extend the wait. Legal challenges, particularly to voter eligibility and voting procedures, are already mounting. Republicans have filed over 100 pre-election lawsuits, challenging everything from voter roll management to mail-in ballot processes. These lawsuits could delay the final count in key states, prolonging the election outcome.

Poll workers and election officials in various regions are also preparing for disruptions—whether due to last-minute changes in voting laws, technical difficulties, or even incidents at polling locations. Any of these issues could stretch out the timeline for results, especially in states where absentee and mail-in ballots are counted later.

The critical swing states in this election—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are all expected to have delays in reporting final results. While some states will be able to report partial counts within hours of polls closing, others will take much longer.

• Georgia: The polls in Georgia close at 7:00 p.m. EST. With a high number of early and mail-in votes expected, results could start to trickle in shortly after, but a full picture may not emerge until later that evening.
• Pennsylvania: Votes here won’t be counted until after polls close, meaning that it may take at least 24 hours before enough ballots are tallied to make a projection. This state could be a key decider in the race, with both candidates vying for its crucial 20 electoral votes.
• Michigan: Michigan’s early counting system has helped speed up the process in past years, but due to the volume of mail-in ballots, a final result is expected only by the end of Wednesday.
• Arizona and Nevada: In both of these states, the processing of mail-in ballots could take days. In Arizona, Maricopa County’s decision to wait until the next day to count ballots could delay the final count into Wednesday morning. Nevada, similarly, will accept ballots postmarked on election day, and those mailed in may not arrive until after polling ends, which could delay the outcome.

Historically, election results have been known on the night of the election—or at least by the following morning. In 2016, for example, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency shortly after 3:00 a.m. EST. In 2012, when Barack Obama won a second term, the result was confirmed before midnight on election night.

However, some elections have seen prolonged waits. The 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore is the most notable example. The race was so close that it took over a month for the result to be decided after a recount in Florida led to a landmark decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to end the process and declare Bush the winner.

In 2020, the wait was similarly prolonged, with Joe Biden not being declared the winner until November 7, after Pennsylvania’s results were fully tallied.

While some states have worked to improve the speed of counting—especially after the challenges posed by the 2020 pandemic election—this year’s race remains likely to drag on. In addition to recounts and legal challenges, there could be delays in places hit by natural disasters or those dealing with the logistical complexities of mail-in voting, which is expected to be much less than in 2020 but still significant.

The presence of international and military ballots, which are typically among the last counted, also means that results may not be final until several days after Election Day.