Pakistan could face a fresh wave of inflation as surging global oil prices threaten to increase energy costs and put additional pressure on the economy. A new research report warns that if crude oil prices cross the $100 per barrel mark, inflation in the country may rise to 9 to 11% in the coming months, driven mainly by higher fuel, transport, and food costs.
According to a research report released by Topline Securities on Sunday, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving continuous increases in energy prices, which could directly impact Pakistan’s economy.
The report said that if cured oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, it could increase Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 2.8 to 3.7 percent.
The report added that the price of Brent crude, which stood at around $68.70 per barrel at the start of 2026, had surged to $92.69 per barrel by March 8, marking an increase of nearly 35 percent. During the week, Brent crude also briefly touched a high of $94.51 per barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $90.90 per barrel, recording its largest weekly increase in futures trading history at around 35.6 percent.
The sudden spike in global oil prices has already forced Pakistan to pass the burden on to local consumers. The report said the rise in oil prices will affect Pakistan’s CPI both directly and indirectly, mainly through higher transport and food costs.
Fuel and transport carry a weight of around 6 percent in the CPI basket. If fuel prices increase by 20 percent, it could push overall inflation up by approximately 1.2 percent.
