Can China Control India’s water supply?

China has unveiled plans to construct the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet — a development that has become a growing source of concern for India, especially amid already strained bilateral relations between the two nations.

According to Chinese officials, the dam is intended solely for hydroelectric power generation. However, India fears that the project could significantly reduce the river’s water flow, potentially leading to severe water shortages for millions of residents in downstream areas.

India recently announced its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty — a pivotal agreement for Pakistan. While India has threatened to terminate its water-sharing accord with Pakistan, it also harbors similar apprehensions about China possibly restricting water flow from the Brahmaputra.

The Brahmaputra River is a critical water source for India. Originating in Tibet, it flows through India’s northeastern states before entering Bangladesh. China’s plan to build a massive dam in Tibet could significantly alter the river’s course, affecting both India and Bangladesh.

Estimated at $137 billion, the project is set to be built in a geologically sensitive region of the Himalayas, precisely where the Brahmaputra takes a sharp turn before entering India’s Arunachal Pradesh state.

While China claims the dam is solely for domestic energy needs and will not affect water flow to India or Bangladesh, New Delhi remains unconvinced by these assurances.

Experts have voiced concerns that a project of this scale could diminish the river’s water levels, adversely impacting agriculture, hydropower generation, and the daily lives of millions across northeastern India.